Posted on: August 21, 2009 8:20 pm
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Posted on: December 24, 2008 12:38 pm
Edited on: December 28, 2008 5:21 pm
Just wondering how your draft strategy worked at the end of the season. I’ve played in 5 leagues last year but cut it down to 3 this year. To make it interesting I tried out 3 different draft strategies. The first strategy I used was the Stud Running Back Theory (SRBT). This is self explanatory as you pick the best RB available, ect. The Second strategy I used was the best player available based on their projected Scoring Value (SV). This may also be known as Value Based Drafting. The final theory I used was the “X” factor. This theory takes into account the projected scoring and past history over the last three season to come up with an average SV. Then for example at QB, it assumes there are 12 starting QB in your league. So what ever point value or SV the number 12 QB has is then subtracted from the remaining QBs to get the X Factor. This year Marc Bulger was number 12 so his X factor was 0. Ideally, this theory would let you know when any player would be taken too early or is a steal.
Now that I’ve finished my leagues I thought it would be interesting to post the results. In the SRBT draft, I won the division and was the number one seed in the play offs. But poor coaching decisions in the first round caused me to lose to the wild card team. I ended up taking fourth in that league. I was very disappointment in myself that I over thought the situational matchups. It didn’t help that M. Barber was a game time decision and I picked him over Choice. My second team never had a chance. I was fortunate to have Tom Brady slip to me as the number 11 pick, so I snatched him. Once, he broke his leg I was not able to recover and finished out of the playoffs in fifth. In my X-Factor draft I made it to the Championship game, but lost. In this league I was ranked number one all year until the last week when I slipped to second. That was fortunate as the wild card team posted the high score and knocked off the number one team, who I lost to the following week. In hind site, injuries seem to be the key factor on how your team performs.
What was your strategy and how did you make out?
If you want to discuss this more check out the group I set up Boozers Fantasy Football Strategy and join in.
Posted on: November 3, 2008 7:36 pm
AFC East Break Down Against AFC West
Overview. The AFC East has no clear cut favorite at the end of Week 9. Three teams have 5-3 records with the Dolphins only one game back. The perennial favorites Patriots have competition this year and certainly face challenges with Tom Brady out for the season. The AFC East as a division is 19-13 and has scored 729 points with 699 point scored against them. The Jets have scored the most points in the AFC East with 208 points while the Patriots have given up the least amount of points at 150. The Jets and Dolphins are riding a two game winning streak while the Bills have dropped two and the Patriots have dropped one game.
The AFC West is quickly become known as the AFC Worst. The division’s record is 10-22 as all three active teams this week lost. The AFC West has scored a total of 647 points while giving up 844 points. As with last week, the Chief who are currently in last place are only three games back of the Broncos, and the Chargers picked up a game on the Bronco with a bye week. It’s becoming more probable that this division will have a 9-6 or 8-8 division leader by the end of the season.
Top Performers. Though Week 9 the Chargers and the Jets lead their respective divisions with total number of points scored. The Broncos and Dolphins are in the top 10 offensively for yards per game. The Broncos, Chargers, and Dolphins are in the top 10 for passing yards per game. The Patriots and Raiders are among the NFL top 10 in rushing yards per game. Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Chad Pennington, and Brett Favre are among the NFL’s top 10 in total passing yards. Only Thomas Jones was in the NFL’s top 10 rushing leader. Lee Evans and Brandon Marshall are among the 10 in receiving yards. Defensively, Joey Porter leads the NFL with 12 sacks, and Shaun Ellis (8) has 7 sacks. Darrelle Revis leads the NFL in interceptions returning one for a TD. DeAngelo Hall and Brandon Meriweather both are ranked number 7 with 3 INTs.
Top to Bottom Analysis. The AFC East certainly has the upper hand over the AFC West through week 9. The Dolphins have beet both the Broncos and Chargers, Bills have beat the Raiders, Patriots have beat the Broncos and Chiefs, but lost the Chargers, and the Jets have beat the Chiefs but lost to the Raiders and Chargers, Collectively the AFC East is 7-3 against the AFC West. Defensively the AFC East yields fewer points and offensively are putting more points on the board than the AFC West. The Broncos (3) and Dolphins (10) are in the top 10 for total yardage per game while the Chiefs (26) and Raiders (29) are in the bottom of this category. The Chargers (3) and Jets (8) are among the top teams for average points per game. Surprisingly, the Dolphins (2) and Chiefs (3) lead in turnover ratio while the Broncos are last with the Bills and Jet in the bottom 10 as well. Six of the eight teams are the least penalized in the NFL, while the Raiders have the dubious honor of being ranked 7 in this category. The Broncos (4), Dolphins (6), and Chargers (7) lead the NFL in total passing yards per game. The Chargers lead the NFL in passing TD with 19 followed by the Broncos (5) and Jets (6) both of whom have 15 TDs. The Chargers (1), Dolphins (5), and Bills (7) lead the NFL in QB rating. The Patriots are (7) with 1,053 total yards rushing and the Raiders (8) have 972 yards. Defensively the Bills (10) are in the top 10 yielding just over 301 yards/game while all four teams in the AFC West are in the bottom 10. The Patriots only give up 18.8 points/game making them the 9th ranked team in the NFL. The Chargers have given up the most passing yards (2,121) while the Broncos (6), Dolphins (7), and Jets (9) also have been vulnerable to the pass. The Chiefs (1) have yielded a league leading 1,459 rushing yards. The Raider (3) and Broncos (8) are also on this list and have been the easiest teams to run on through Week 9.
Outlook. Both divisions remain undetermined as who will emerge as the champion with no clear cut leader at this point.
Stats at a glance Defense Offense
Pts Yds/G Pass Yds Rush Yds Pts Yds/G Pass Yds Rush Yds
Chargers 24.9 (23) 371 (26) 2121 (32) 852 (16) 29.2 (3) 343 (12) 246 (7) 97 (24)
Chiefs 27.9 (29) 407 (31) 1797 (22) 1459 (32) 15.8 (29) 282 (26) 168 (28) 114 (14)
Broncos 27.6 (28) 387 (29) 1946 (27) 1157 (26) 23.8 (12) 371 (3) 268 (4) 105 (18)
Raiders 25.1 (24) 373 (28) 1730 (16) 1261 (30) 13.4 (32) 264 (29) 142 (31) 121 (10)
Patriots 18.8 (9) 317 (14) 1701 (14) 840 (15) 21.0 (22) 322 (18) 191 (23) 131 (7)
Dolphins 20.4 (12) 331 (22) 1938 (26) 717 (9) 21.4 (19) 349 (10) 249 (6) 100 (21)
Bills 21.1 (13) 301 (10) 1622 (12) 791 (12) 22.8 (13) 320 (20) 227 (12) 93 (27)
Jets 23.4 (19) 312 (13) 1891 (24) 608 (4) 26.0 (8) 327 (17) 214 (14) 113 (15)
Note. Source NFL.com. Stats were before the MNF game and may be subject to change.
Posted on: October 28, 2008 12:05 am
Edited on: October 28, 2008 6:50 pm
Overview. The AFC South certainly looks to be as good as last year, but it’s not the Colts who are dominating this year it’s the Titans. The Titans have an unblemished 7-0 record. The Colts are four games back and need to make up a lot of ground with only a few weeks remaining. The AFC South as a division is 16-12 and has scored 645 points with 585 point scored against them. Surprisingly, the team in last place (Texans) has scored the most points in the AFC South. However, the Texans defense has given up the most point leading to their poor record. Conversely, the Titans are averaging 12 points a game by their defensive unit.
The AFC West is under performing as compared to this time a year ago. The division’s record is 10-19 scoring a total of 603 point and giving up 764 points. By comparison the Chief who are currently in last place are only three games back of the Broncos, which is the a better position than the Colts. So it’s anybody’s division to win or loss at this point.
Top Performers. Though Week 8 the two divisions have some high flyers. The Chargers (3) and the Texans (10) lead their respective divisions with total number of points scored in the NFL. The Broncos (2) and Texans (4) are in the top 10 for yards per game. The Broncos, Chargers, Colts and Texans are in the top 10 for passing yards per game. The Titan (3) and Raiders (7) are among the NFL in rushing yards per game. Philip Rivers leads the NFL with an impressive QB rating of 107.8. Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler are also in the top 10. Rivers (3rd - 2,038 yards), Cutler (4th - 1,862 Yards), and Manning (9th - 1,740) are in the top 10 for total yards passing. Rivers leads the NFL with 19 TDs, followed by Cutler (6th) totaling 13, then Manning and Schaub with 10. Chris Johnson ranks 4th in rushing with 626 yards rushing followed by LaDainian Tomlinson who ranks 8th in the NFL with 551 yards rushing. LenDale White leads the NFL with 10 rushing TD this season. Andre Johnson leads the NFL with 772 yards receiving. Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson are in the NFL’s top 10 as well. Kevin Walter and Chris Chambers each have 5 TD and are in the NFL’s top 10. The TE position is filled with quality players. All four TE in the AFC West are ranked in the NFL’s top 10 for total yardage along with the Texans and Titans. Antonio Gates leads the group with 5 TD and 403 yards followed by Tony Gonzalez who has 3 TD and 369 yards on the year. The Bronco Tight End tandem of Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler have combined for 4 TD and 479 total yards. Dallas Clark is in the top 10 for receiving yards and has 2 TD on the season.
Top to Bottom Analysis. The AFC South certainly has the upper hand over the AFC West through Week 8. Defensively the AFC South yields fewer points, and have out scored the AFC West. The AFC South has run the ball better as referenced by the dynamic duo of Johnson and White. The AFC West has two of the NFL’s leading passers with Rivers and Cutler while the AFC South’s Schaub and Johnson have been among the elite this year as well. It’s no secret that playing from behind favors the passing game while playing from the lead favors the rushing game. Top to bottom the AFC South has a better record and their last place teams would be second if they played in the AFC West. Injuries have played a big part in both the AFC South and West’s performances. Payton Manning got off to a slow start recovering from off season knee surgery. Also, Joseph Addai has been out much of the season putting more pressure on the Colts. The Broncos have been hit by the injury bug on both sides of the ball losing Boss Bailey, Champ Bailey, Tony Scheffler, Brandon Stokley, and Selvin Young. The Titan lost Vince Young early in the season, but have maintained with Kerry Collins at the helm. The Chiefs have been disseminated at QB, working with the third string QB now and without the service of Larry Johnson for past two games, maybe more. The Chargers started the regular season banged up but seem to be on the mend offensively. Defensively, the Chargers took a big hit when Shawne Merriman went out.
Outlook. Barring injuries look for the Titan to keep a lock on the AFC South, while the reaming teams fight for a Wild Card spot. Look for this division to mix it up going into the last half of the year. In the AFC West it’s any ones division right now and too early to make projections. However, my guess is that the Wild Card will not be coming from the AFC West this year.
Pts/G Passing Rushing
Broncos 24.7 (12th) 263 (3rd) 118 (13th)
Chargers 28.0 (3rd) 264 (7th) 97 (27th)
Raiders 15.3 (30th) 161 (29th) 129 (7th)
Chiefs 14.1 (31st) 163 (28th) 103 (20th)
Titans 24.8 (11th) 160 (30th) 154 (3rd)
Colts 21.3 (20th) 244 (9th) 70 (32nd)
Jaguars 20.1 (25th) 201 (20th) 116 (14th)
Texans 25.0 (10th) 253 (5th) 118 (11th)
Source NFL.com 10/27/08. Note some data from the MNF was not available at the time of this post and rankings are subject to change.
What do all these stats mean? Some times they can tell a story and some times they don’t. Statistically, the Raiders and Chiefs are nearly dead last and their record reflects the story. The Texans are statically better than anyone in their division but are in last place.
Posted on: October 26, 2008 9:52 pm
Edited on: October 26, 2008 9:54 pm
Around the Horn: The AFC West had great match ups heading into Week 8 but at the end of the day remained win less. The Chargers (3-5) were at Wembley Stadium in an overseas shoot out, but lost to the Saints 32-37. This game featured a long awaited match up between Drew Brees and Philip Rivers, each had great games and had something to prove. The Chiefs (1-6) traveled to Giants Stadium to face the Jets, again without the services of Larry Johnson but lost 24-28. The Chiefs started Tyler Thigpen at quarterback and may have found their new starter. The Raiders (2-5) traveled east to take on the Ravens but ran into a buzz saw. They lost 10-29. No one was able to make up ground on the Broncos who were off this week.
Top Performers: The AFC West only managed to have two of the NFL top performers for Week 8. Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson.
Chargers: Individual AFC West team top performers for the Chargers include Philip Rivers who finished second this week in passing yards. Rivers passed for 341 yards with three touch downs completing 25 of 40 attempts. Phillip Rivers spread the TDs around to Gates, Tomlinson, and Jackson. A late interception by Rivers with 1:18 to play sealed the win for the Saints. LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 105 yards on 19 attempts and added another 65 yards receiving. Tomlinson’s performance allowed him to be fourth overall in rushing this week.
Chiefs: Tyler Thigpen was 25/36 for 280 yards and two touchdowns. Dwayne Bowie lead the Chiefs with 102 yards receiving. Tony Gonzalez had 79 yards and a touchdown. Mark Bradley caught his first NFL touchdown this week.
Broncos: Having the week off couldn’t have come at a better time. The Defense has given up 195 points in seven games and will be with out Champ Bailey. The Offense after posting 114 points in the first three games has only managed to score 59 points in the last four games.
Week 9 Match Ups: The Raiders are at home to take on the Falcons, the Broncos are at home against a much improved Dolphins team, the Chiefs have the Buccaneers at home, and the Chargers have a bye week.
More AFC West! Check these blog sites for your self.
Tenebrous - The Silver Lining: Oakland Raiders Blog
LTowns515 - LTowns515’s Blog about the Chargers
ALLDay80 – All Broncos ALL DAY
Next Week Preview: The AFC South - How the AFC West Matches Up
Posted on: October 21, 2008 12:08 am
Around the Horn: The AFC West had some difficult matchups against the two divisional leaders. Week 7 only had one winner in the AFC West, the Raiders. The Charger (3-4) lost on the road to the Bills 14-23. This game featured a bizarre power outage which stopped the game early in the first quarter and then again with 2 minute on the second quarter. The Chiefs (1-5) hosted the unbeaten Tennessee Titans without the services of Larry Johnson but lost 10-41. The Raiders (2-4) hosted the Jets and won with a record breaking field goal in Overtime. The Broncos (4-3) traveled to East Coast for a matchup against the Patriots on Monday night and lost 7-41.
Top Performers: Individual top performers in the NFL this week were dominated by players from the AFC South. The AFC West only managed to have one of the NFL top performers for Week 7. Tony Gonzalez ranked fifth overall for receivers this week.
Chargers: Individual AFC West team top performers for the Chargers include Philip Rivers. Rivers passed for 208 yards with two touch downs and was a very efficient completing 22 of 29 attempts. Phillip Rivers spread the TDs around to Vince Jackson and Malcom Floyd again this week. Rivers had a costly turn over late in the fourth quarter that the Bill’s ultimately converted to a FG. The potential 10 point swing was the difference in the game. LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 41 yards on 14 attempts and added another 26 yards receiving. Nate Kaeding added 2 extra points.
Chiefs: The Kansas City Chiefs played three quarter back this week. Damon Huard went 9/16 for 96 yards, Tyler Thigpen was 5/11 for 76 yards, and Brodie Croyle was a very efficient 9/10 for 63 yards. Croyle left the game with a knee injury that ultimately ended his season. The Chiefs passed for 225 yards and rushed for 58 yards. Thigpen had the only touch down for the Chiefs. Tony Gonzalez who was at the center of trade rumors this week had an impressive 97 yards on 6 receptions and finished 5th overall in the NFL for receiving. Larry Johnson did not play this week as he served a one game suspension for team rules infractions.
Raiders: The Raider’s JaMarcus Russell rolled out and hit Javon Walker for a TD. It was Walker's first TD of the season. The Jets kicked a late field goal to take the Raiders overtime. But a 57 yard field goal by Sebastian Janikowski gave the Raiders the win 16-13. A much need win for the Raiders and their new coach. The Raiders posted 203 yard passing and 153 yards rushing. Justin Fargas put up the majority of the yards on the ground rushing for 74 yards on 28 attempts.
Broncos: Jay Cutler connected on 17 of 26 for 168 yards. Eddie Royal had 69 yards on 8 receptions. Brandon Marshall caught 6 passes for 77 yards. The only touch down went to Daniel Graham. Michael Pittman rushed for 88 yards on 20 attempts. Turnovers hurt the Broncos again this week with 2 interceptions and 3 fumbles.
Week 9 Match Ups: The Raiders are on the road and take on the Ravens, the Broncos have a bye week, the Chiefs travel east to take on the Brett Favre’s Jets, and the Chargers are in London for a game against the Saints in a match up that features two of the NFLs top rated passers, Drew Brees and Phil Rivers.
AFC Division Leaders: North – Steelers (5-1), South – Titans (6-0), East – Bills (5-1), West – Broncos (4-3)
More AFC West! I’m not the expert on each team so I’ve assembled a list of bloggers and members who regularly post about their home team. Check them out for your self. Note to Chiefs. I’m looking for someone has a blog about the Chiefs. Let me know if you are interested.
Tenebrous - The Silver Lining: Oakland Raider Blog
LTowns515 - LTowns515’s Blog about the Chargers
ALLDay80 – All Broncos ALL DAY
Posted on: October 13, 2008 10:13 am
Edited on: October 15, 2008 8:22 pm
How did the AFC measure up this Week?
Around the Horn:
This week’s winners include only the San Diego Charger (3-3) who defeated the New England Patriots 30 to 10. The Denver Broncos (4-2) were defeated by the Jacksonville Jaguars 24-17 and Oakland Raiders (1-4) were defeated by the New Orleans Saints 34 to 3. The Chiefs (1-4) were off this week. Not a particularly good showing this week by the AFC West, with the exception the Chargers. Chargers are turning the heat up on the front runner! Fumbles and interceptions continue to haunt the Broncos along with defensive issues. The Jag's David Garrard had all day to find open receivers. The Raiders debuted their new head coach, but with the same results. Funny what difference a week makes. Last week the Chargers wondered if they had traded the wrong Turner. A win cured the hangover from last week’s loss.
Individual AFC West team top performers for the Chargers include Philip Rivers. Rivers ranked 4th overall the week, through for an impressive 306 yards and a touch downs hat trick. Philip Rivers spread the TDs around to Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd, and Antonio Gates. Vincent Jackson ranked as the 3rd overall wide reciever this week with 134 yards including a nice 59-yard reception. LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 74 yards on 20 attempts and added another 44 yards in the passing game. Nate Kaeding added another 12 point for the Chargers hitting on 3 of 4 field goal attempts and was perfect with 3 extra points.
The Broncos only have one top performer this week, and it’s Michael Pittman. Pittman finished 5th overall the week and had 109 yards rushing on 20 attempts with 3 receptions for another 16 yards. I add honorable mention for Brandon Stokley who left the game early with a head injury and Daniel Graham played well with Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler out. Cutler continued to have problems with turnovers, and did live up to his self proclaimed comment that his arm was stronger than John Elway’s this week. You have to walk the walk if you are going to talk the talk.
The Raiders only mustered 3 points so as you can imagine, no top performer for for the Oakland Raiders this week. The Raiders posted 159 yard passing and 85 yards rushing.
Next weeks match up:
The Raiders at home against the Jets, the Broncos travel to New England, the Chiefs hosting the Tennessee Titans, and the Chargers start a long road trip to Buffalo and then head to London for a home game. Now that’s a road trip!
Please note the ranking for individual team performances was done prior to the MNF game and may be subject to change.
Feel free to post how you think your AFC West team will do in Week 7.
Remember if you like it rate it, if you don’t like it start your own!