Its prime time Sunday night where the 8-7 Denver Broncos having lost their last 2 games take on the 7-8  San Diego Chargers winners of their last 3 games.  The winner will most like face the Indianapolis Colts in the first round of the playoffs and the loser gets to think about the season that could have been.

Stats:  The Broncos have scored 349 points and given up 396 while the Chargers have scored 387 points and given up 326 points.  The Broncos are 4-3 on the road where they have beat the Browns, Jets, and Falcons.  The Chargers are 4-3 at home.   The Chargers have a one game advantage against divisional opponents while the Broncos have fared better against non-conference opponents.

Matchups:  Offensively the Broncos scored an average of 23.3 (17th) with 395 yards of total offense ranking 2nd in the NFL (277 yards passing and 118 yards rushing).  Defensively the Broncos give up an average of 26.4 points a game with 366 yards which ranks them 28th in the league (230 yards passing 136 yards rushing).  For the Chargers offensively they average 25.8 (7th) points a game with 339 yards of total offense (13th).  The Chargers pass for 243 (7th) yards and rush for 95 (28th) yards a game.  Defensively, the Chargers give up 21.7 (17th) points a game and 346 (25th) yards.  The Chargers yield 242 (31st) yards passing and 103 (11th) yards rushing a game.

Individual Matchups:  Jay Cutler is ranked 3rd in passing yards and Philip Rivers is ranked 5th.  Rivers has thrown 5 more TD and 6 less interception than Cutler.   At the Wide Receiver position the Broncos have Brandon Marshall (3rd) and Eddie Royal (9th) ranked in the top 10.  The top Chargers receiver is Vincent Jackson (32nd).  The Broncos have Tony Scheffler (21st) ranked Tight End while the Charger have Antonio Gates who is ranked 6th in the NFL.  The Chargers have LaDainian Tomlinson who is ranked as the 16th leading rusher this year.  It is difficult to rank the Broncos running backs since they have started 5 or 6 back due to the injuries.  (See also Key Injuries)

Analysis:  The Broncos should have the edge in the passing game against the 31 rated Chargers pass defense.  The Chargers have a good matchup too against the 28 ranked Broncos defense.

Key injuries:  Selvin Young was placed on IR Monday.

The Bottom Line:  Chargers are favored by 9 points.  Accuscore.com projects the final score to be Broncos 17 Chargers 30

 – Boozers.

The Broncos can lock up the AFC West with a win this week or a Chargers loss.  Personally, I would like to see the Broncos win the title vs. backing into it.  Playing conditions this week in Denver are expected to be in the 20’s.  Snow is in the forcast on Saturday, but that shouldn’t be an issue for either the Bills or the Broncos.  One issue for the Bills is who will be starting at QB, Gibram Hamdan or J.P. Loseman?  If it’s Hamdan I wouldn’t expect a whole lot of passing yards even against the Broncos Defense.  But now we find out that Trent Edwards will start.  I think he's the best bet for the Bills.  He may be a little rusty in the first half but I would expect to see him turn it on in the 2nd half.  Lee Evans and Josh Reed should get the majority of the 150-200 yards.  Marshawn Lynch should get 17-20 touches this week but I don’t expect him the break 100-yards.  More likely to see Lynch in the 70-85 yard range.  When the Bills get to the Red Zone, Lynch will likely be their best option to score.

For the Broncos, I expect Jay Cutler to pass for 220-250 yards with 1-2 TD and an INT.  Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal will get most of the looks with the majority of the yards going to Brandon.  Tatum Bell, Selvin Young, and P.J. Pope will all split carries this week and total around 120 yards.  Tatum, Selvin, and Brandon should be the favorites to score once the Broncos hit the Red Zone.  It is time for Pro Bowler's Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler to step it up a notch.

Final score:  Broncos 24 Bills 17

I’ve been reading the Broncos message board, the news papers, and web sites this week leading up today’s game.  The whipping the Panthers put on the Tampa Bay last week, particularly in the running game have the Broncos heavy underdogs this week.  The projection on one site is DEN 18 vs CAR 28.  The same site has the Panther’s DeAngelo Williams rushing for 117 yards and a TD along with Jonathan Stewart’s 71 yards.  The good news, Jake Delhomme is only projected for 198 yards and a TD with Steve Smith held to 85 yards.  The Broncos on the flip side are projected to rush for 81 yards with Tatum Bell responsible for 45 yards.  Jay Cutler is projected to pass for 238 yards with a one TD/INT.  The majority of the yards will go to Brandon Marshall (71) and Eddie Royal (61).   

The Broncos have played well on the road this year and have had the NFC South’s number (3-0).  The Panthers are undefeated at home, sound familiar?  Yes, so were the Falcons until the Broncos beat them.  You just have to wonder if after how explosive the Panthers were on MNF, if they aren’t due for a let down and a potential trap game? 

Overview:  Let me begin with a rant.  The three games played on Thanksgiving had to be the worst games of the week in terms of routes.  The Lions proved that 0-16 is possible, and in my opinion should not be automatically given the opportunity to play in front of a national audience.  Who scheduled this game, the best and the worst?  In Weeks 8-10 this post has compared the AFC West to the other divisions.  For the remainder of the season the entire AFC will be reviewed from a head to head perspective.    

The AFC North’s two top teams Steelers and Ravens continued to play well and posted some big scores.   The Steelers soundly defeated the Patriots who are still contending for the AFC East lead.  The Steelers snapped Matt Cassel’s 400 yard passing streak holding him to 169 yards.  Cassel was sacked 5 times and picked for 2 INTs.  The Ravens played the Bengals and crushed them.  Derrick Mason had one TD on the day from WR Mark Clayton.  Clayton had a great day as well as he finished with 164 yards receiving and a TD.  The AFC North as a division is 22-25-1 and has scored 925 points with 917 point scored against them.  The Ravens have scored the most points in the AFC North with 292 points while the Steelers have given up the least amount of points at 170. The Ravens WR Mark Clayton was top performer with 169 yards on just 5 receptions one being for a TD.     

The AFC South front runners are the Titans, who have a strangle hold on the top spot in their division with only one lose.  The Colts are still making a push but can’t make up any ground.  They still have a reasonable chance to obtain a Wildcard position.  The AFC South as a division is 28-20 and has scored 1,084 points with 1,005 point scored against them.  The Titan led their division in points for and against.    

The AFC East front runners, Jets were soundly defeated at home by the AFC leader in a cold wet game.  The Patriots could not make up any ground as they were pounded by the Steelers.  The AFC East as a division is 28-20 and has scored 1,146 points with 1,039 point scored against them.  The Jets have scored the most points in the AFC East with 340 points while the Patriots have given up the least amount of points at 255.  Thomas Jones was the leading rusher in the NFL last week with 138 yards and 2 TDs.

The AFC West front runners Broncos had a road game against the Jets who were on a long winning streak, and had just beaten the Titans in the previous week.  Jay Cutler lead the Broncos to a 17 point win over the Jets passing for 357 yards and 2 TDs as was the NFLs leading passer for the week.  The Chargers dropped one at home.  This game featured the return of Michael Turner to SD.  The Chiefs won for only the second time this year over the rival Raiders.  The division as a whole has the weakest records at 16-32.  The AFC West has scoring a total of 970 points and giving up 1,098 points.  The Broncos led the division scoring a total of 292 points and the Raiders have given up the least amount of point with 265.

Top Performers.  To be considered a top performer the player must be rated within the top 3 at the position.  The Offensive and Defensives unit will be noted in the “Stats at a Glance” section below and not included in this area.  At the QB position, Jay Cutler (3) is the only top performers with 3,393 yards passing.  No AFC RB rated in the top 3 for rushing yards in the NFL.  Andre Johnson is the NFLs leading WR with 1,196 yards.  Tony Gonzalez leads all TE with 806 yards.

Playoff Analysis.  The following predictions are from Accuscore.com and are considered the percent chance the team has to obtain a playoff position.  The teams in the playoff hunt include the Titans (100), Steelers (94), Colts (91), Broncos (91), and Ravens (64).  The Jets (64), Patriots (43), and the remaining teams have less than a 43% chance and are sitting outside the playoff picture at the end of Week 13.

Stats at a glance                       Defense                                                           Offense

                        Pts             Total YPG      PYds/G        RYd/G              Pts          Total  YPG     PYd/G     Rush Yds/G

AFC West

SD (4-8)         22.8 (21)      367 (27)       260 (31)      107 (15)        24.2 (12)     329 (15)       236 (9)        93 (27)

KC (2-10)       28.3 (30)      395 (32)       231 (32)      163  (31)      18.0 (25)      307 (25)      189 (23)      117 (12)

DEN (7-5)      26.6 (29)      380 (28)       236 (27)       144 (28)       24.3 (11)      390 (2)        280 (3)        110 (19)

OAK (3-9)      22.1 (17)      351 (25)      192 (8)          158 (29)      14.3 (30)      263 (29)      139 (32)       123 (10)

AFC North

PIT (9-3)       14.2 (1)          238  (1)      166  (1)         71 (1)           22.4 (20)     308 (24)       201 (19)      106 (22)

BAL (8-4)      15.8 (3)         253  (2)       175 (2)         78   (3)          24.3 (11)     323 (19)      180 (27)       143  (3)

CLE (4-8)       20.6 (19)      356 (26)       215 (17)      141 (26)       17.8 (27)     275 (27)       169 (29)      105 (23)

CIN (1-10-1)  25.8 (25)      349 (24)       217 (20)       131 (24)       12.6 (32)     232 (32)       154 (30)      78 (31 )

AFC East

NE (7-5)        21.2  (12)      317 (13)       211(16)       105 (14)        23.1 (18)    355 (9)         224 (11)      130 (9)

MAI (7-5)       21.4 (13)      330 (18)       233 (26)       97 (11)          21.1 (23)    354 (10)       238 (8)        115 (13)

BUF (6-6)      21.6 (14)       314 (12)       205 (14)      109 (17)        23.0 (19)    322 (20)       211 (15)       110 (20)

NYJ (8-4)       22.3 (18)      331 (19)       249 (30)      82 (4)            28.3 (2)       346 (11)       214 (13)      132 (8)

AFC South

TEN (11-1)    14.6  (2)        281 (5)        185 (4)         97 (12 )        25.3 (7)       325 (18)       186 (21)      138 (6)

IND (8-4)       20.8 (11)      322 (15)      188 (6)          138 (25)       21.4 (22)     318 (22)       239 (7)        79 (29)

JAX (4-8)       22.5  (20)     319 (14)       204 (13)       115  (20)      20.1 (24)     320 (21)       209 (17)      111 (15)

HOU (5-7)      25.8  (25)    338 (21)        209 (15)      128 (23)        23.5 (15)    367 (5)          252 (5)       115 (15)

(**) League Rank Source NFL.com

Overview.  In Weeks 8-10 this post has compared the AFC West to the other divisions.  For the remainder of the season the entire AFC will be reviewed from a head to head perspective.

The AFC North’s two top teams Steelers and Ravens had tough matchups.  The Steelers defeated the Chargers who are still contending for the AFC West lead.  This was a low scoring game 10-11 with a controversial finish.  Another blown call by the official against involving the Chargers.  This call however would not have changed to outcome, just the score.  The Ravens played the defending champions and division leading Giants.  On paper it looked to be a good defensive matchup but the Giants prevailed and posted 30 point on the number 2 rushing defense.  The AFC North as a division is 18-21 and has scored 770 points with 800 point scored against them.  The Ravens have scored the most points in the AFC North with 222 points while the Steelers have given up the least amount of points at 150. The Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (3) was a weekly top performer with 149 yards on 12 receptions one being for a TD.

The AFC South front runners are the Titans, who have a strangle hold on the top spot in their division and are still undefeated.  The Colts are still making a push but can’t make up any ground.  They still have a reasonable chance to obtain a Wildcard position.  The AFC South as a division is 23-17 and has scored 916 points with 852 point scored against them.  The Titan led their division in points for and against.

The AFC East has a new leader as the Jets defeated the Patriots in overtime Thursday night.  The AFC East as a division is 24-16 and has scored 936 points with 830 point scored against them.  The Jets have scored the most points in the AFC East with 289 points while the Patriots have given up the least amount of points at 194.  Matt Cassel was this weeks leading passer with 400 yards.

The AFC West front runners Broncos had a road game against the Falcons who were previously undefeated at home and won while the Chargers lost another close game on the road against the Steelers and top their rated defense.  The division as a whole has the weakest records at 13-27.  The AFC West has scoring a total of 795 points and giving up 1,008 points.  The Chargers led the division scoring a total of 245 points and have given up the least amount of point with 229.

Top Performers.  This section will be devoted to reviewing individual performances for each of the following positions QB, RB, WR, and TE within the NFL community of players.  The criteria for a players rating will be based strictly on yardage.  To be considered a top performer the player must be rated within the top 3 at the position.  The Offensive and Defensives unit will be noted in the “Stats at a Glance” section below and not included in this area.  At the QB position, Jay Cutler (3) is the only top performers with 2,838 yards passing.  No AFC RB rated in the top 3 for rushing yards in the NFL.  Andre Johnson is the NFLs leading WR with 995 yards.  Tony Gonzalez is tied for the number 1 position for receiving yards at the TE position.

Playoff Analysis.  The following predictions are from Accuscore.com and are considered the percent chance the team has to obtain a playoff position.  Titans (100), Steelers (87), Jets (70), Colts (66), Broncos (63), Patriots (53), Dolphins (52), and the remaining teams have less than a 43% chance of making the playoffs.

Stats at a glance                       Defense                                                           Offense

                         Pts             Total YPG      PYds/G        RYd/G          Pts          Total  YPG     PYd/G     Rush Yds/G

AFC West

SD (4-6)        22.9 (19)      372 (27)       267 (32)     105 (14)         25.4 (7)       335 (14)        242 (7)        93 (27)

KC (1-9)        27.3 (28)      402 (32)       237 (27)     165  (31)       16.5 (29)      292 (26)       181 (26)      111 (16)

DEN (6-4)      27.1 (27)      386 (29)      243  (29)     143 (26)        24.8 (8)       388   (3)        280 (3)       109 (18)

OAK (1-9)     27.1 (27)      357 (25)      199 (13)      158 (29)       12.8 (32)       256 (30)       137 (32)      118  (10)

AFC North

PIT (7-3)       15.0  (2)        237  (1)       168   (1)       69   (1)         20.9 (24)      300 (25)       200 (18)       99 (23)

BAL (6-4)      18.0  (6)       267  (3)       188   (8)       79   (3)         22.2 (17)      318 (19)      171 (29)       146  (3)

CLE (4-6)       22.1 (15)     368 (26)       206 (15)      131 (23)       13.8 (31)      242 (32)       158 (30)       83 (30)

CIN (1-8-1)    24.9 (24)      337 (20)      194  (10)     138 (25)        13.9 (31)      238 (32)       151 (30)       87 (30 )

AFC East

NE (6-4)        19.4  (9)       308 (12)       204 (14)      104 (13)        21.9 (21)     346 (10)        214 (12)     132 (8)

MAI (6-4)       19.7 (10)      314 (14)       222 (20)      91 (9)            20.9 (23)     353 (9)          236 (9)       117 (12)

BUF (5-5)       21.8 (14)     312 (13)       202 (13)      109 (18)        21.9 (20)     306 (20)        207 (15)      99 (24)

NYJ (7-3)       22.1 (15)     321 (15)       239 (28)      81 (4)           28.9 (2)        336 (12)        211 (13)     125 (9)

AFC South

TEN (10-0)    13.1  (1)        282 (6)        186 (6)         95 (10 )        24.4 (9)       316 (20)         83 (25)       133 (7)

IND (6-4)       22.4 (17)       328 (17)      189 (9)        138 (25)        22.4 (15)     327 (17)         249 (6)        77 (32)

JAX (4-6)      21.0  (13)      328 (18)      215 (18)      113  (20)       21.2 (22)     314 (23)        196 (21)      117 (11)

HOU (3-7)      28.7  (30)     343 (22)      210 (17)     132 (24)         23.6 (11)    370 (5)           255 (5)       114 (15)

Source NFL.com

(I have posted this on the Broncos Team page as well)

The Broncos are 6-4 after the win against the Falcons and have a two game lead over the Chargers (4-6) who lost a close one to the Steelers.  I think if we go 4-2 over the next six games or 3-3 if the last win is against the Chargers we win the division.  What is your projection over the next six games?

Week 12 OAK @ DEN

Week 13 DEN @ NYJ

Week 14 KC @ DEN

Week 15 DEN @ CAR

Week 16 BUF @ DEN

Week 17 DEN @ SD

I think if we go 3-3 that still forces the Chargers to win out and that's going to be tough.